Special Article from Sasin School of Management: Thailand’s Education in the Age of Low Births 

Thailand is facing a significant population structure transformation that impacts the economy, society, and educational system in multiple dimensions. One of the authors was invited by the National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT) and Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI) to participate in a panel discussion on “Changing Population Situations and Structures” to analyze and present information about future population trends, the decline of working-age population, and the increase of elderly populations, all of which are critical challenges for national development. This article will discuss three main issues: changes in population structure and their impacts, challenges in the educational system, and approaches to preparing and responding to these situations. 

Thailand is entering a critical population structure transition. According to a special article, “What Will Happen If ‘Deaths Continuously Outnumber Births’ in Thai Society,” projections suggest that by 2083, the population will decrease from 66 million to just 33 million—nearly halving in less than a century—due to consistently low birth rates compared to death rates. The working-age population (15-64 years) will drop from 46 million to only 14 million, while the elderly population (65 and above) will increase from 8 million to 18 million, resulting in Thailand becoming a “complete aged society.”. However, in the short term, such as by 2050, population trends still depend on the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). In the Medium Variant scenario, TFR remains steady at 1.16; in the Low Variant, it increases to 1.6; and in the High Variant, it continuously drops below 1.16. Under the High Variant scenario, the elderly population will exceed 20% by 2025, while in Low and Medium Variant cases, it will not reach that level. This situation reflects the urgency of planning to address upcoming changes. 

Given the changing population structure trends—whether in High, Medium, or Low Variant scenarios—Thailand must prepare for a significant reduction in student numbers, potentially resulting in excess classrooms and teachers. This situation reflects the need to adapt the educational system to changing demands. Furthermore, the distribution of students between general and vocational education tracks does not meet the goals set in the 8th National Economic and Social Development Plan, which aims for an equal split between general and vocational education for lower secondary school graduates. Although we are now in the 13th National Economic and Social Development Plan, the numbers still show a higher proportion of general education students. One reason may be the shortage of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) teachers, leading students to have weak foundations in these areas and prefer general education tracks. Moreover, higher education students continue to choose social science fields over scientific fields like engineering and health sciences. These issues raise critical questions, such as: What will happen if ‘deaths continuously outnumber births’ in Thai society? A comprehensive long-term plan that covers all dimensions would be essential in addressing this challenge. 

The problem of declining new population and its potential impact on Thailand’s education system may be addressed by shifting perspectives and emphasizing child quality development instead of focusing solely on quantity. Quality children emerge from “good education,” and it’s undeniable that teachers are the key to educational quality development. Skilled, virtuous, and high-quality teachers will be the foundation for nurturing children’s potential and creating quality personnel for the country’s future. 

The rapidly declining number of children may lead to a reduction in the number of teachers. If the number of teachers and educational personnel is not reduced, it could impact teachers’ compensation, benefits, and motivation. The teaching profession may no longer attract talented or high-potential individuals. One key approach to elevating the quality of teachers in Thailand is creating appropriate incentives to attract more capable personnel into the teaching profession. Increasing fair and suitable compensation can help build confidence in job security and encourage young, knowledgeable individuals to participate in educational development. Besides compensation, creating work motivation is crucial. Teachers should… 

• have full opportunities to teach
• free from non-teaching tasks
• allow them to dedicate time and energy effectively to children’s development 
• support resources 
• continuous skill training 
• value teachers’ societal roles can all help promote long-term teacher quality

Aside from teacher development, educational curricula must be updated to respond to the future world’s needs—a world full of artificial intelligence (AI) and environmental changes. Children must develop significant skills like critical thinking, collaboration, and adapting to rapid changes. These skills cannot be replaced by technology, unlike some skills at high risk of replacement. The authors believe that if educational curricula can move beyond content-focused, memorization-based teaching and focus on developing creative thinking and systematic problem-solving, it may help children grow into adults with the skills and capabilities the future world requires. 

Authors 

• Prof. Dr. Kua Wongboonsin, Independent Scholar, Former Lecturer at the College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University, and Sasin School of Management 
• Assoc. Prof. Dr. Piyachart Phiromswad, Deputy Director of Sasin School of Management  
• Prof. Dr. Patcharawalai Wongboonsin, Independent scholar 
• Sansanee Pornsansirikul, Senior Officer, Sasin Next  
• Siwaporn Suksing, Officer, Sasin Next 

• Facebook
• Twitter
• Line