Rethinking Thailand’s Population Crisis through the Lens of a “Reluctant Economist” 

Thailand’s population crisis—marked by declining births and a rapidly aging society—is often framed in economic terms. But through the eyes of a “reluctant economist,” it reveals deeper social fault lines such as widening inequality, fragile job security, and a growing disillusionment among the young.

Thailand’s Demographic Crisis 

Many of us are already aware of Thailand’s growing demographic crisis. The country is now experiencing “more deaths than births,” and the Thai population is steadily shrinking. Within approximately 50 years, the population is projected to drop by half—from over 60 million to just over 30 million. The country will be filled with elderly citizens. Working-age individuals will become rare, and the number of children and youth will decline dramatically. All of this stems from one key issue: Thai people are having fewer children. 

This is undeniably a major issue that many sectors are trying to address with the best possible solutions. In our article, “Integrated National Strategic Plan: Turning Thailand’s Population Crisis into Future Opportunities,” we presented macro-level strategies for dealing with this issue. However, in this article, we want to invite everyone to “rethink” the problem through the perspective of the “Reluctant Economist”—a concept developed by Professor Richard A. Easterlin. This lens, which is rarely seen (or perhaps never seen) in Thai discourse, may help us better understand the root cause of the population crisis—and possibly lead us to better solutions. 

What is a “Reluctant Economist”? 

Professor Richard A. Easterlin, a renowned economist from the University of Pennsylvania (one of the authors was his student), introduced several influential economic theories, such as the Easterlin Paradox and the Easterlin Hypothesis. In his book titled The Reluctant Economist, Easterlin encourages thinking outside the box, particularly outside the dominant frameworks used by contemporary thinkers. He argues that sticking to traditional thought frameworks can hinder our understanding of problems and our ability to find innovative solutions. 

But thinking outside the box is difficult, because when someone challenges the norm, “those within the box often don’t like it, don’t accept it, or don’t understand it.” 

Applying the Reluctant Economist to Thailand’s Population Decline 

Thailand’s declining birth rate poses the core of the population crisis. From the perspective of the Reluctant Economist, the central question is, why are people choosing to have fewer children? 

The theory posits that people may not “feel” successful enough to start a family. This is based on Easterlin’s Relative Income Hypothesis, which argues that young people don’t make decisions about having children based on absolute income (i.e., how much money they actually earn), but rather on how their current standard of living compares to their expected standard—an expectation shaped by their upbringing, family background, environment, media, and the lifestyle of their parents’ generation. 

So, if younger generations feel that their standard of living isn’t as good as—or better than—their parents’, or that the cost of living (housing, education, childrearing) keeps rising, they may delay or avoid having children altogether. The trend is further reinforced by societal pressures and unrealistic portrayals of success—luxury cars, lavish lifestyles, and expensive travel—promoted on social media, often artificially staged for likes and views. 

As long as this “feeling of inadequacy” persists, many young people will choose to delay childbirth—or forgo it entirely. 

How Can the Reluctant Economist Approach Help? 

Addressing Thailand’s population crisis cannot rely solely on trying to increase the birth rate, as that alone will be too slow and difficult to achieve. Alternative measures—previously outlined in our article on the national strategic plan—include

• Promoting Silver Economy (leveraging the aging population) 
• Positioning Thailand as a global talent magnet 
• Accelerating the shift toward an innovation-driven economy to compensate for a shrinking workforce 

However, ignoring the birth rate growth altogether is also not viable. If nothing is done, the crisis will evolve into a national structural issue. A future with only half the current population would radically alter the social and economic systems that were designed for 60 million people. It would also affect national competitiveness, international bargaining power, and even military security. 

Therefore, what does the Reluctant Economist suggest? 

A Future Built on Hope and Stability 

The key lies in people’s expectations for future living standards. We believe the following measures can create an environment in which the younger generation feels secure and hopeful enough to start families:

1. Job Security Amid Technological Disruption 

With technology and AI threatening to replace jobs, there needs to be clear answers about what meaningful, sustainable work will remain for people. 

• On the demand side: The government and private sector must prioritize the creation and protection of high-value jobs rather than maximizing profits through full automation. Consider the idea of an “AI Tax,” akin to a Carbon Tax, where irresponsible AI adoption—without concern for human livelihoods—is penalized, just like pollution was in the past. 

• On the supply side: Investment in human capital must go beyond just reskilling or upskilling. The focus should be on developing new skills tailored to high-quality, future-proof jobs in the AI and tech era. 

2. Reducing Real and Perceived Inequality 

Reducing inequality is not just about actual socio-economic disparities but also about tackling the “illusion of inequality” created by social media. 

Real inequalities—such as unequal access to quality education, childcare, maternal healthcare, and affordable housing—must be addressed to reduce anxiety about future living standards. 

But it’s equally critical to confront the fabricated illusions of perfection on social media. These illusions cause widespread social harm and could even fall under laws governing computer crimes, as they involve the spread of false information that negatively affects nearly every citizen. 

3. Changing Social Mindsets About Family 

To encourage childbirth, starting a family must not feel burdensome, stressful, or overly expensive. Instead, it should be seen as something positive, fulfilling, and life-enhancing—a pursuit that society actively celebrates. 

Following the Reluctant Economist’s thinking, this belief should become a social norm, a value deeply embedded in our collective mindset. If social media can be used to mislead society, why not use it to gently nudge people toward the idea that having a family can bring happiness? Let people see realistic portrayals of joyful family life, which could inspire them to follow suit. 

Conclusion 

Solving Thailand’s population crisis requires us to look deeply and holistically at the root causes, not just treat the symptoms. While the National Strategic Plan is an essential step, it is still addressing the “symptoms of illness.” In contrast, the Reluctant Economist approach helps us identify the underlying causes—the actual “virus” behind the condition. 

Overcoming this crisis will depend on creating a society that offers the younger generation both security and hope, making the decision to build a family both realistic and rewarding. 

Authors:

Faculty members of Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Chulalongkorn University. 

• Prof. Dr. Kua Wongboonsin—independent scholar, former professor at Chulalongkorn’s College of Population Studies and Sasin  
• Assoc. Prof. Dr. Piyachart Phiromswad – Deputy Director of Sasin 
• Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pattarake Sarajoti—faculty and researcher in sustainable finance and capital markets, Sasin 
• Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard—Head of the Center for Governance and Behavioral Finance Research, Sasin
• Prof. Dr. Patcharawalai Wongboonsin—independent scholar, former professor at Chulalongkorn’s College of Population Studies 

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